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WP-2016-06: Macroeconomics and Modelling for Labor Market Analysis: Philippines Employment Projection Model and Key Indicators of the Labor Market

Putting forward observations on a macro-level perspective, the Philippines’ unemployment rate has demonstrated a pattern of downtrend, as examined in periods 2012 and 2014. This observation is also noticeable on the youth unemployment rate, wherein in 2014 the rate hits its lowest in the last five years. Therefore, the sound findings observed involving these macroeconomic variables have imparted an unprecedented boost to the productivity of the country’s human resources that in effect steered the Philippines to a better economic performance. Based on the results generated by the model, the model if lagged from 1 up to 2 years, there will be “slightly under-forecast” unemployment rates. On the other hand, in using the GET model, the forecasted unemployment rates from 2015 to 2019 tend to follow an upward trend, as opposed to the projected rates computed by the PEPM. The contrasting coefficients generated by regression using the Philippines’ unemployment rate as dependent variable and its GDP growth rate as independent variable have explained the assumption of Okun’s Law, wherein a country that produces more output may possibly create more jobs leading to a decrease in its unemployment rate.

Department of Labor and Employment - Institute for Labor Studies
Authors Keywords
Daquio, Carl Rookie O.; Villena, Ivan Cassidy F.; Pacete, Paulina Kim C.; employment; labor market; labor; unemployment; labor economics; macroeconomics; labor market analysis; Projection Model; Philippines Employment Projections Model; PEPM; Employment projection models; EPM ;
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Published in 2016 and available for Downloaded 3 times since August 04, 2021
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