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Publication Detail
BRAc DP 2021-03: The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) Model of a Pandemic and the Philippines' Quarantined Economy

This paper discusses some of the features of the Philippine economy that has been under some form of restriction or quarantine since the full-blown onset of the pandemic in the Philippines in March 2020. Quarantine measures have included containment policies that compulsorily restricted the operating capacities of businesses, albeit in different degrees per industry. Containment policies have depended largely, among others, on available information about the rise and fall in the number of infections, recoveries, and death. With the possible significant effects of the pandemic and containment policies on the aggregate performance of the Philippine economy, this paper attempts to describe and quantify the corresponding interactions between containment policies and the number of infections and recoveries, among others. These are analyzed along with the possibly resulting disruptions to businesses and to the economy as a whole. Specifically, the standard dynamics between aggregate consumption and labor hours during the quarantine period is combined with the predictions of the traditional susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model of an epidemic. The results provide both quantitative and qualitative perspectives that describe the difficult tradeoffs between containing infections and economic declines.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Authors Keywords
Basilio, Joselito, R. ; Philippine economy; economic growth; pandemic; COVID 19; vaccine; recovery; consumption; epidemic; COVID-19; recession; containment; quarantine; SIR; infection; economic impact; covid ;
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Published in 2021 and available for Downloaded 1 times since July 28, 2021
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