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“Pendulum Swings” in the Philippines’ South China Sea Approach?


Several observers have likened Philippine foreign and security policies on the South China Sea to a pendulum, with each administration swinging away from their predecessor’s approach. Thus, the Philippines’ South China Sea approach has seemed inconsistent. Yet despite the oscillations, there remain some continuities. I survey the Philippine government’s actions on the South China Sea under five presidential administrations: Ramos, Estrada, Arroyo, Aquino, and Duterte. From 1995 to 2022, I observe that the country’s foreign and security policies have consistently rested on five pillars: (1) bilateral diplomacy with China, (2) multilateral diplomacy through ASEAN, (3) grounding in the law of the sea, (4) maintaining the alliance, and (5) modernizing the military. Remembering these policy continuities matters for current and future policymaking on the South China Sea. Consistency is not always desirable and may result from stubbornness. Before aiming for consistency, the Philippines must ensure the correctness of the foreign and security policies it has consistently pursued so far.


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