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Hydro-Meteorological Risk Assessment Guided Demand Forecasting in Humanitarian Logistics Management: The Case of Tacloban City in the Philippines

The Philippines is considered a climate "hot spot" and is widely regarded as one of the world's most disaster-prone countries, reflecting both its high incidence of natural hazard events and significant vulnerability. The experiences during Typhoon Haiyan in Tacloban City point to significant issues in disaster response pertaining to humanitarian logistics management (HLM). A critical element in designing a robust HLM system is evidence-based demand forecasting to facilitate the formulation of appropriate designs and operating plans. The study assessed different levels of risk of three hydro-meteorological hazards (typhoons, floods, and rain-induced landslides) and related exposure of the population in Tacloban City using the preliminary results of the 2011 Community-Based Monitoring System (CBMS) as well as information from existing government data, available research, people's accounts, and other studies. The Sphere Project Minimum Standards for Humanitarian Response served as basis for demand forecasting regarding food and non-food requirements of potentially affected populations.


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