On April 2, 2025, the United States announced key details regarding its new “reciprocal” tariff policy. According to recent calculations by Goldman Sachs Economic Research (GSER), the overall trade-weighted tariff increase is expected to reach 18.7% (see Table 1). The largest increases are observed in China (47.5%) and Vietnam (46.7%), followed by Thailand (30.1%), Indonesia (28.5%), and Taiwan (27.8%). The tariff increase for the Philippines is 13.2%.
The “reciprocal” tariff policy is composed of two main components: (a) a 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports, excluding those from Canada and Mexico, which will take effect on April 5; and (b) additional tariffs on most U.S. trading partners, excluding Canada and Mexico, based on half of the ratio of the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with the partner divided by U.S. imports from that partner (GSER). This second component will take effect on April 9.