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Do Changes in the Real Exchange Rate Affect the Trade Balance? Evidence from European Countries


This study used five time and frequency domain causality tests to study whether unit labor costs-based real exchange rate depreciations/appreciations caused improvements/deteriorations in the trade balances of ten Eurozone economies, and thus contributed to closing trade imbalances during 1995-2019. The methods used deal with the inherent nonlinearity and structural shifts in the time series. They also take into account asymmetry and regime changes. The non-parametric approach avoids the possible bias associated with the identification strategy. Test results indicate that there is no evidence of such a causal relationship.


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