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Beyond Correlations: A Counterfactual Analysis of BSP’s Asset Purchases Using Synthetic Control Groups


The unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a forceful mix of monetary response from central banks (CBs) all over the world. These policy tools came in the form of rate cuts, reserve requirement cuts, balance sheet expansion, regulatory forbearance, and other similar measures. Asset purchases, were in particular, a popular choice among CBs. The BSP as with other CBs resorted to asset purchases to help sustain ample domestic liquidity, shore up market confidence, and ensure the efficient functioning of the financial system. This study aims to determine the causal impact of the BSP’s asset purchases on key financial market variables. It was determined that such policies done by the BSP were able to lower the rate of borrowing among banks as well and increase investor confidence in the return performance of Philippine bonds. In contrast, this study finds that unconventional policies have no significant causal impact on the equities market and the FX market.


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