For the Philippine economy, 1998 turned out to be worse than most people, especially the pundits, expected. The slowdown was widely predicted to be mild. As is now well-recognized, the crisis in the Philippines was aggravated by the historically unprecedented collapse of agricultural output, thanks to El Niño, which was not a factor in 1991-92. A "mild recession" has been forecast -- without taking the weather into account. This paper traces the economic performance under the Estrada administration. In conjunction with the world scene, it also offers relevant factors observe during several crisis periods.
