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The Nexus Between Displacement and Radicalization in Eastern Mindanao: Association, Causality, and Effects; A Study Conducted by International Alert, Commissioned by GIZ

Eastern Mindanao, or the Caraga Region, in the southern Philippines, has a high rate of violent conflict. Displacement caused by conflict is rapidly becoming a national security issue. Displacement can result in radicalization and recruitment, prompting the following question: How can peacebuilding groups avoid this? The study analyzed 479 violent conflict episodes culled from military and police records, and a random sample of 4,714 conflict incidents reported to the Philippine National Police. Tribal, ethnic, and clan identities were found to be more predictive of radicalization than ideological and political connections. Intra-ethnic polarization, rather than ethnic fragmentation, is a more powerful driver of conflict, displacement, and radicalism in Caraga. Caraga's abundant natural riches help finance the rebellion's costs and benefits. Women who have been displaced are less likely to be radicalized or recruited. The experiences of Caraga's displaced people are varied and frequently multi-causal, resulting in a variety of displacement tales. According to a study conducted by the University of Guernsey, a multi-stakeholder, integrated, adaptable, and coordinated response is necessary. Displacement from horizontal conflict is frequently temporary and limited in scope, allowing local government units (LGUs) to intervene. On the other hand, vertical conflict necessitates greater resources and more extensive networks at the provincial, regional, and national levels.


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