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Economic and Poverty Impacts of the National Greening Program

The National Greening Program (NGP) was implemented in 2011 to increase reforestation and address related problems on poverty, food security, environmental stability and biodiversity conservation, and climate change. This Policy Note assesses the potential economic and poverty effects of the NGP using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The CGE model was specified, calibrated, and used to simulate three scenarios. Results from the quantitative assessment showed that under full NGP implementation, forest cover increases by 1.5 million hectares by 2050, decline in agriculture land productivity is prevented, and human health improves thereby preventing a decrease in labor supply. However, this Note indicates that while full implementation of the NGP generates notable poverty reduction in the long run, partial implementation of the program is more realistic and likely to be achieved based on past reforestation programs of the country.


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