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2024 Inflation Decomposition and Outlook: Maintaining Stability amidst Rising Inflationary Pressures


Inflation remains a major concern for the Philippines as it poses a significant threat to macroeconomic stability. This study presents an empirical analysis of the current drivers of inflation in the country and provides statistical forecasts for the remainder of 2024. Using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the results show that inflation may taper off in the third quarter of 2024 after accelerating in the second quarter. Furthermore, the estimates suggest that seasonal dynamics can be expected to become more pronounced later this year. Anemic growth in the agricultural sector and weaker-than-expected growth in the industrial sector aggravate growing inflationary pressures. Another critical concern is the substantial amount of money circulating in the country. External risks, including oil price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and potential shifts in international payment systems, further exacerbate the inflation problem.


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