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2024 GDP Decomposition and Outlook: Sustaining Economic Momentum in the Face of Surging Headwinds


This study constitutes an empirical analysis of the current composition of the Philippine GDP and provides statistical forecasts of its growth trajectory for the remainder of 2024. Based on a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) formulated by the Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department - Tax Policy Research Service (CPBRD-TPRS), the Philippine GDP has the potential to reach the lower-end of its growth targets in 2024 - provided that inflationary pressure does not severely constrict economic activity. If accumulated inflationary pressures undercut aggregate demand, the Philippine GDP is expected to underperform relative to its growth targets. Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) remains the largest contributor to GDP but appears to be increasingly moderated by high and rising inflation. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) is steadily increasing, reflecting the efforts of the government to stimulate the economy through public spending. Gross CapitalFormation (GCF) remains stagnant, signaling future growth constraints. Concerns regarding net exports and the trade balance persist, with imports outpacing exports. Sectoral analysis reveals that the services sector remains as the largest contributor to the economy by a significant margin.The industrial sector is growing albeit at a significantly slower pace than the services sector. Finally, the agricultural sector remains mired in its struggles. The numbers suggest that while the Philippines is poised to grow in the near-term, its longer-term prospects are threatened by growing internal and external risks.


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