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Publication Detail
WPS3139: Contracting models of the Phillips curve - empirical estimates for Middle-income countries

This paper provides empirical estimates of contracting models of the Phillips curve for four middle-income developing economies-Chile, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, and Turkey. Following an analytical review, models with both one lead and one lag, and two lags and three leads, are then estimated using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques. The results indicate that for both Chile and Turkey past and future inflation are of about the same magnitude in affecting current inflation. In Korea past inflation has a larger impact on inflation, whereas in the Philippines it is future inflation that plays a larger role. Homogeneity restrictions are satisfied for Korea and Turkey, but not for Chile and the Philippines.

World Bank
Authors Keywords
World Bank; World Trade Organization; trade reforms; central bank; price changes; price elasticity; free trade; General Agreement on Tariff and Trade; econometric modeling; price index; political economy; consumer welfare; business cycles; exchange rate;
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Published in 2003 and available in the World Bank website or Downloaded 35,490 times since November 25, 2011
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