In April 2025, the Trump administration imposed “reciprocal tariffs” on trading partners to address the U.S. trade deficit, posing risks for Philippine exports, with the U.S. accounting for about 17% of total outbound trade. This brief examines PH-U.S. trade relations and the potential effects of higher U.S. tariffs on key Philippine exports, identifying vulnerable sectors and estimating additional tariff costs. It also explores likely inflationary impacts on Philippine imports from the U.S., particularly essential goods like meat and feeds. The brief offers policy considerations, including the need for a stable tariff regime, enhanced support for market diversification, and a stronger trade framework to safeguard Philippine interests.
