The Philippines has a massive public transport shortage, made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic and the decision to tighten public transport supply in 2020. This shortage impeded efforts to curb the spread of the COVID-19 virus and contributed to the country's worst postwar recession, as non-home-based workers found it much harder to move and go to work (SWS, 2021). We find that even if the entire rail-heavy Php 2 trillion public transport infrastructure flagship project pipeline is completed on time over the next decade, the Greater Capital Region area will still experience a system-wide shortage in public transport supply, even with conservative demand growth assumptions. We estimate this using passenger trip survey data and publicly available reports on the passenger ridership of the flagship projects. In pursuit of a more efficient and sustainable use of public funds, we recommend a better balance for a better normal: a shift in the country's infrastructure pipeline to include more active transport infrastructure promoting walking and cycling, as well as expanding road-based public transport modes through public utility vehicle gross-cost service contracting, bus rapid transit investments, and other complementary infrastructure. These programs would contribute the largest impact to improving public transport supply in the short-term and the medium-term, require far less investment while enabling equal mobility capacity, and enhance the network effects of the public transport flagship project pipeline being built.
We recommend that future infrastructure projects be evaluated based on people-and nature-oriented metrics-how interventions improve the service quality of and commuting experience in public transport. Such metrics include, but are not limited to, shorter waiting times, less crowding, faster travel from point A to point B, reduced generalized cost for commuters, adherence to health protocols, less carbon emissions, improved access for persons with disability, gender sensitivity, reduced transfers, and safer commutes