This working paper presents initial results of a strategic foresight project that explores plausible futures for the semi-temperate vegetable industry of Luzon toward 2050. Using horizon scanning, driver mapping, stakeholder consultations, and scenario planning, the study identified 125 drivers of change and distilled them into key uncertainties, shaping long-term trajectories. These uncertainties span policy coordination, extension and service delivery, private sector engagement, logistics, crop and digital technologies, labor and automation, consumer behavior, circular economy transitions, and inclusivity of emerging innovations.
Drawing from global megatrends and local evidence, the paper develops four scenarios that illustrate divergent futures: a business-as-usual path marked by uneven progress; a disowned future shaped by labor scarcity and declining participation; a preferred future built on resilience, innovation, and coordinated governance; and an integrated scenario reflecting mixed outcomes across regions and systems. From these, the study identifies no regret investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, capacity development, financial instruments, and institutional reforms.
By embedding foresight into agricultural planning, this paper provides a foundation for adaptive, future-ready policymaking to ensure that Luzon’s vegetable sector remains productive, competitive, and resilient amid accelerating change.