The sharp increase in global oil prices during 2026 renewed concerns about the vulnerability of the Philippine economy to external energy shocks. As a net oil-importing economy, the Philippines remains highly exposed to fluctuations in global oil prices, with implications for government revenues, fiscal performance, and economic growth. This study examines the macroeconomic and fiscal transmission of oil-price shocks in the Philippines. Using monthly and quarterly data from 2016 to 2025, the study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to estimate the short-run and long-run relationships among oil prices, petroleum tax revenues, fiscal balance, and economic activity. The results show that petroleum VAT collections are closely linked to import values and exchange-rate movements, while excise tax revenues are driven primarily by the phased rate increases introduced under the TRAIN Law. The fiscal balance deteriorates in response to higher oil prices, with government expenditure emerging as the principal channel through which oil-price shocks affect fiscal outcomes. The growth equation reveals a non-linear relationship between oil prices and economic activity, suggesting that moderate oil-price increases may coincide with stronger economic activity through global demand spillovers, but that this relationship weakens and eventually reverses as higher energy costs begin to dominate. The findings also suggest that targeted fiscal interventions implemented during previous episodes of elevated oil prices helped mitigate the adverse effects of oil-price shocks on economic activity. A policy simulation of the 2026 excise tax suspension further indicates that higher VAT collections can partially offset, but not fully eliminate, the revenue losses associated with temporary fuel tax relief. Overall, the results highlight the importance of fiscal preparedness, expenditure management, and well-targeted support measures in strengthening resilience to oil-price volatility.
