On August 7, 2025, the United States imposed a uniform 19 percent tariff on most Philippine exports, pursuant to US Executive Order No. 14257 and subsequent bilateral negotiations. While this tariff excludes some high-value sectors, notably electronics and machinery, it still affects approximately one-third of total Philippine exports to the U.S., particularly labor-intensive goods such as garments, footwear, and tobacco. The new U.S. measure marks a turning point in global trade relations, signaling a preference for bilateral leverage over multilateral discipline. Using detailed 2024 trade data and product-level elasticities, this policy brief simulates the short-term impact of the new tariff regime. Results suggest a projected fall in Philippine exports to the U.S. from USD 14.6 billion to USD 11.5 billion, leading to a projected trade loss of USD 2.2 billion in the latter half of 2025 alone. While some product lines may benefit from a reduced tariff relativeto their previous Most Favored Nation (MFN) rates, these are marginal and do not offset losses in major product categories. This analysis provides empirical grounding for urgent policy decisions. It also highlights the need for strategic adaptation through domestic procurement reform, industrial upgrading under the Tatak Pinoy Strategy, and regional coalition-building. This brief is the first in a series. A forthcoming companion note will explore the broader strategic implications of large economies exercising optimal tariff strategies and the risks this poses to global trade stability