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Sovereign Debt Vulnerabilities: Assessing the Philippines’ Fiscal Risks and Future Outlook


This paper examines the causes and effects of sovereign debt crises. It investigates key factors driving debt accumulation such as elevated deficit spending, the expansion of welfare programs, increasing reliance on foreign-denominated debt, and premature deindustrialization. While the study does not suggest that the Philippines is facing an imminent sovereign debt crisis, it highlights the increasing complexities of managing debt sustainability amid volatile macro-fiscal conditions. Assessing the Philippines’ solvency, liquidity, and debt profile, the study identifies emerging vulnerabilities and long-term fiscal risks. The paper argues that a sustained fiscal consolidation over the medium-term that is guided by carefully calibrated fiscal targets is essential to mitigating debt risks and ensuring long-term economic stability. Policy recommendations focus on institutional reforms, debt management strategies, and measures to enhance economic resilience.


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