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Slower Growth Environment and Global Oil Market Disruptions: Implications for Philippine Debt Sustainability


This paper provides an in-depth assessment on the debt sustainability of the Philippines’ National Government public debt using the International Monetary Fund’s Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) framework, incorporating updated macroeconomic assumptions and fiscal program and reflecting slower economic growth and oil-driven inflationary pressures. The analysis examines debt dynamics under the current economic conditions, debt maturity and currency debt composition, interest-rate growth differentials, and macro-fiscal stress tests to evaluate vulnerabilities to adverse shocks. Results indicate that while NG debt remains sustainable under the baseline scenario, the debt trajectory has shifted to a higher and a more persistent path relative to the original medium-term fiscal framework. Macro-fiscal stress test outcomes show that debt-related risks are driven primarily by growth shocks and elevated gross financing needs, suggesting vulnerabilities are more likely to materialize through liquidity pressures and erosion of fiscal space rather than immediate solvency concerns. The findings of this paper also underscore the importance of growth-friendly reforms, credible fiscal consolidation, and strengthened medium-term fiscal and debt management frameworks to safeguard debt sustainability.



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