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Public Debt Sustainability and the Proposed FY 2026 National Budget


This brief provides an assessment of the sustainability of the National Government’s debt, fiscal deficit trends, and financing patterns. The analysis is centered around the proposed FY 2026 national budget. It outlines the government’s revised medium-term fiscal targets and highlights the clear departure from its original consolidation path. The discussion also examines the composition of government borrowings and the evolution of the debt servicing burden. Debt sustainability analysis is discussed alongside debt-to-GDP projections, debt dynamics, and debt-stabilizing primary balance. The brief concludes with an evaluation of debt profile vulnerabilities which can also serve as an early warning system for potential debt crisis.


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