This Budget Brief provides an overview of the FY 2026–2029 Revenue Program within the context of the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) and assesses its implications for fiscal consolidation. It highlights the widening departure from the MTFF, with revenue effort projected to decline to 15.4% of GDP by 2028 and tax effort remaining broadly flat at around 14.6%. The Brief reviews the 2025 revenue performance, which fell P67 billion short of target, and the longer-term stagnation in tax effort despite tax policy and administrative reforms. It also presents alternative CPBRD tax revenue forecasts alongside DBCC projections to assess the revenue outlook under different macroeconomic assumptions. The Brief further examines the government’s recalibrated revenue strategy, including measures that balance tax relief with revenue generation through targeted consumption, environmental, and wealth-related taxes. It also highlights the implications of the weakening revenue outlook to the FY 2027 National Budget and the need for complementary revenue mobilization and expenditure management efforts.
