The recurring war in the Middle East and other geopolitical conflicts around the world, the threats of climate change (La Niña and El Niño) and natural disasters, accumulated inflationary pressure, and domestic production inefficiencies will feed on inflation in 2026 and the succeeding years. Using empirical analysis of the inflation dynamics in the Philippines, the paper decomposes current inflation trends including major consumption expenditures heavily affected by the current disruptions, and highlights the key factors that will define its future level such as domestic inflationary risks (i.e. adverse weather conditions, oil, electricity and transport price hikes) and adverse international developments (i.e. geopolitical conflicts, trade protectionism, and depreciation of the peso). The CPBRD projects that inflation in the Philippines in the third quarter of 2026 will be within the range of 6.37%-7.32% and 5.91%-7.31% in the fourth quarter. The study also posits that in a high inflation scenario, the government, aside from addressing supply-side constraints must explore fiscal restraint with targeted transfers to complement monetary policies aimed at lowering inflation while maintaining overall consumption level.