Real estate crises underscore the sector’s central role in systemic risk transmission. This study provides new evidence on how real estate firms and non-bank financial institutions shape financial stability within the Philippines’ conglomerate-based financial system. Using high-frequency stock data from 2013–2025, it applies optimal candlestick spot volatility estimators and ΔCoVaR to quantify spillovers. Property shocks strongly affect both banks and non-banks, with the latter amplifying stress. Large banks remain resilient, while smaller ones show greater downside sensitivity, revealing asymmetric contagion and flight-to-safety behavior. Contagion intensifies within conglomerates, highlighting complex intra-group linkages and their implications for financial stability oversight.
