A recent study by Ms. Jan Marie Claire Edra, Dr. Junette Perez, and Dr. Edwin Valeroso of De La Salle University examined how global oil price shocks affect inflation in the Philippines, with particular attention to the role of the peso-dollar exchange rate. The paper, titled Exchange Rate Pass-Through of Oil Price Shocks to Inflation in the Philippines, looked at data from January 2001 to December 2024 and used a mixed-frequency econometric model that combines daily oil prices and exchange rates with monthly inflation and quarterly output growth. The study examines a familiar concern among Filipino households: when world oil prices rise, fuel, transport, and food costs are often felt almost immediately. However, the researchers found that the relationship between oil prices and inflation is not as direct or automatic as commonly assumed. According to the findings, oil price shocks tend to produce immediate but short-lived movements in the exchange rate. Inflation, on the other hand, responds more gradually and with less statistical precision. This suggests that although the exchange rate may contribute to inflation dynamics, other transmission mechanisms—including fuel, transportation, electricity, and distribution costs—may also play an important role.
